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General => General Discussion => Topic started by: JJJoseph on December 07, 2023, 08:54:16 AM
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There's a lot of noise from some regions about the end of gas-powered cars and trucks by 2030. What are the plans in your part of the world? Does this include scooters, motorcycles, boats and airplanes, too?
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The UK has delayed its ban on the sale of new cars which burn petrol or diesel in internal combustion engines (ICE) from 2030 to 2035. In some ways, this is no surprise: the original plan was to ban them from 2040, a deadline brought forward by the then prime minister, Boris Johnson, in 2020.
About to get a new (to us) car and guess what, it will likely be diesel powered again. The price is still way too high for the equivalent EV or Hybrid.
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I'm not ready for the range and charging time yet. I'm retired now, but coming from being a self employed consultant, some days zero miles, other days 300-400 miles of chasing research, checking crew work and meeting with clients. Now more days of zero, but driving to places with no charging infrastructure
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I think it's an ambitious/optimistic timeline to eliminate gasoline engines by year 20xx...but you have to start somewhere. My company has a fleet of 1000's of company provided cars. The plan is to go all electric by 2030. We already have some out in the field. The challenge, like randyo said, is range and charging time. Electric cars work great in large metro areas where the miles driven each day aren't great and a good charging network exists.
For those driving large distances across rural areas with little to no charging infrastructure...they don't work, for now.
Batteries will improve. Range will improve. Charging time will be shortened. The question is when will it hit the sweet spot?
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before the charging infrastructure is improved, the power companies have to expand their 3 phase grid
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There's a lot of noise from some regions about the end of gas-powered cars and trucks by 2030. What are the plans in your part of the world? Does this include scooters, motorcycles, boats and airplanes, too?
2 weeks after gas powered vehicles are outlawed 95% of the Earth's population will have starved to death and you will be free to drive whatever you like if you survive.
Wood fueled Gasifiers ftw just in case.
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California promotes a lot of this green agenda crap, yet this past summer, they couldn't even supply enough electricity for households, thus they told people to charge their electric cars every other day. These are the problems with all EV vehicles:
1) There is very little infrastructure to support a total conversion to charging cars. The batteries take a long time to charge.
2) There are not enough rare earth metals to make batteries to replace every single car, truck, motorcycle, train, boat, etc...
3) The current electrical grid cannot supply enough energy to charge all of these vehicles, thus carbon based fuels are needed to account for the energy deficit. Wind and Solar are limited because the Sun does not always shine, nor does the wind always blow(Unless you are a politician in Washington DC(possible source of unlimited wind energy))...lol
4) You still need to make plastics(which require petroleum products) for exterior and interior parts. You need forges to form the metal frames, which use tremendous amounts of energy, etc...
5) The Battery metals are hazardous to mine(think poor children, men, and women being exposed to Lithium poisoning). They are also hazardous to get rid of once they are depleted. So all the green hippies think they are saving the earth buy saving gas use, yet the rare metal pollution from spent batteries have a far more deleterious effect.
6) This green agenda is politically motivated, thus they are forcing an energy solution which is not feasible at this time. People's energy costs are going up and causing a domino effect on cost of goods and thus reduced spending in the economy.
This being said, hybrid engines are a great way to incorporate using less gas and some EV to reduce emissions. The batteries are smaller, but energy is recaptured through driving and breaking.
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I'm aware of all the noise about the end of gas-powered CARS, but it's not clear if this means the end of gas-powered MOTORCYCLES. Does anybody have any foresight on the end of gas-powered 2-wheelers?
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I'm sure at some point all internal combustion engines will be banned...but most of us will likely be dead by then so it really won't matter...much..
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California promotes a lot of this green agenda crap, yet this past summer, they couldn't even supply enough electricity for households, thus they told people to charge their electric cars every other day. These are the problems with all EV vehicles:
1) There is very little infrastructure to support a total conversion to charging cars. The batteries take a long time to charge.
2) There are not enough rare earth metals to make batteries to replace every single car, truck, motorcycle, train, boat, etc...
3) The current electrical grid cannot supply enough energy to charge all of these vehicles, thus carbon based fuels are needed to account for the energy deficit. Wind and Solar are limited because the Sun does not always shine, nor does the wind always blow(Unless you are a politician in Washington DC(possible source of unlimited wind energy))...lol
4) You still need to make plastics(which require petroleum products) for exterior and interior parts. You need forges to form the metal frames, which use tremendous amounts of energy, etc...
5) The Battery metals are hazardous to mine(think poor children, men, and women being exposed to Lithium poisoning). They are also hazardous to get rid of once they are depleted. So all the green hippies think they are saving the earth buy saving gas use, yet the rare metal pollution from spent batteries have a far more deleterious effect.
6) This green agenda is politically motivated, thus they are forcing an energy solution which is not feasible at this time. People's energy costs are going up and causing a domino effect on cost of goods and thus reduced spending in the economy.
This being said, hybrid engines are a great way to incorporate using less gas and some EV to reduce emissions. The batteries are smaller, but energy is recaptured through driving and breaking.
I'm not in the BEV crowd yet due to sheer cost. Very difficult at the moment to buy affordable electric bikes with comparable range, weight and speed to ICE bikes. The Harley Davidson Livewire for example is 50,000 AUD and comparable to a $12K 650cc cruiser/naked. The BMW CE 04 scooter is 22,000 AUD and comparable to a $9K 350cc maxi scooter, but with only 120km range.
However, there are workarounds to the points above:
1) People have an obsession at the moment with range which means bigger batteries which takes longer to charge. We need a cultural change so people are incentivised to charge smaller amounts at time, like we are happy to charge our phones several times a day without thinking. No need to have 100% charge all the time if there is better charging infrastructure, just like not having a full tank all the time because there are filling stations everywhere.
Some EVs have a VTL (vehicle to load) function which can supply power your home during peak periods.
2) This is true to an extent, there isn't enough lithium or rare earth metals in the world so we need to develop alternative battery chemistries such as sodium-ion.
3) Fossil fuels and nuclear are very important to provide baseload power generation.
However in countries like Australia, 1 in 4 homes have their own solar power and this is becoming more common, allowing people to charge at home. Not uncommon for homes to have a system up to 10kW which can provide 100-200km range per day (assuming 15kWh per 100km) in addition to household demands. Plenty enough.
Variations in supply/demand can also be compensated with battery farms and other energy storage which is important for renewables.
4) This will happen regardless of whatever cars people choose to drive. If anything this means less consumption of petroleum and depletion of deposits.
5) They are moving away from cobalt, of which 3/4 of the world's supply came from Congo, aka child labor. Mining will always have issues.
6) Of course it is. The US and Europe want to reduce their dependence on OPEC countries which can be volatile and run by authoritarian regimes. The key word is sustainability - making existing resources last longer.
Hybrids - this is a good solution. The new Prius uses just 4.7/100km which is very good and more makers are offering hybrid versions of their ICE vehicles. Hybrids are not as expensive as they used to be and are a viable alternative to pure BEVs. Plenty of Priuses with 1 million kilometres.
I think HEVs (hybrids) and PHEVs (plug-in hybrids) offer the best of both worlds and are the immediate solution. They also excel in the city where most people live and use the fraction of lithium of BEVs.
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I'm sure at some point all internal combustion engines will be banned...but most of us will likely be dead by then
We won't be dead! It's only a few years from now! Try to focus: the question is "will gas-powered scooters be banned after 2030 along with cars? Or will gas-powered scooters be exempt?"
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We won't be dead! It's only a few years from now! Try to focus: the question is "will gas-powered scooters be banned after 2030 along with cars? Or will gas-powered scooters be exempt?"
Cars will only be banned in a few locations by 2030 and even that is likely to be pushed back. Much of the world will still be buying ICE powered vehicles well past 2030. These bans mostly apply to the selling of new vehicles. This means ICE vehicles will be on the road until well past 2050. Where I live they are building gas stations like crazy.
Recent news articles show that the demand for electric vehicles is below what is expected and many manufacturers are scaling back plans for EVS in the immediate future at least for the USA.
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Whooo~!
Think what used cars will be going for!!
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I bet the guys selling horses were just as upset when the automobile came along.
Stig
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Whooo~!
Think what used cars will be going for!!
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I bet the guys selling horses were just as upset when the automobile came along.
Stig
And the horses are still here!
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And the horses are still here!
And they cost more to own now than they did back then!
I agree that too many people are obsessed with "range" of their vehicles. But they also don't really understand what range they are considering. There are more ways to think of range.
Is it how many miles a vehicle can go on a single tank or full charge? EVs are getting closer but not yet there.
Is it how many miles a vehicle can go in a day? or two days? or 3? or more? EVs are definitely not there yet per gas powered vehicles simply due to time to recharge and how far until there is a need to recharge.
But there's even more to consider. How far does anyone REALLY need to go on a daily basis most often? EVs are definitely already fulfilling this need. There are always exceptions but most people don't go half as far daily on average as the potential range of most EVs can go on a single charge. Personally I think it stupid to base my decision only on what my distance needs are once or twice per year. I used to be stupid but getting smarter as I get older. Most people take an airplane to go farther than any EV can take them. So take the EV to the airport and rent an EV at the destination. Again, there are always exceptions and there are some people, for work or for personal needs, who have to go farther in a day on a regular basis than any EV can take them. That's where the infrastructucture really needs to improve.
I've always felt that if it were economical to buy an EV in the first place then don't consider it a long distance vehicle but a daily driver/rider type vehicle and also keep a gas vehicle around for longer distance... or rent one. We rented a larger vehicle than what we own just to be able to take the entire family on a longer trip in one vehicle and also save wear and tear (translate: maintenance) on the vehicles we own. That worked out really well.
There is movement in political circles that will delay or prevent the demise of ICE vehicles any time soon... as in possibly the next 20-30 years at least. I don't see ICE vehicles of any kind going away in my lifetime... except maybe in California.
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Besides the range issue, EV's cost a lot more then their gas counterparts. According to consumer reports, EV's are also less reliable at this time. Then there is the huge issue of charging your EV. The infrastructure just isn't there yet. If you live in a house you can install a charger, and it's not cheap. It is not safe to charge in your garage so the charger and car must be outside. If you live in and apartment you are out of luck until your complex installs some charging station.
Lets talk electric scooters. The ones I have seen so far mostly suck. Batteries eat up the storage space normally found on a scooter. Unless they are big, heavy and expensive they don't have much speed or range.
They have been promising a breakthrough in battery technology for years now but we still haven't seen that. Until we do I have no interest in an EV or electric scooter.
On the other hand I do like my cordless drill, leaf blower and weed eater. Someday when my 20+ year old Honda lawnmower finally dies I'll replace it with an electric one.
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Don’t know what the plans are for electric scooters and motorcycles, but I expect whatever timelines currently in place to get moved back, for reasons others have already mentioned.
However, the fundamentals for oil are not good, and prices could spike in the next few years. That might speed up the transition to evs, but there are plenty of roadblocks preventing a large scale switchover.
I would think it’s more feasible for scooters and mc’s than cars to go electric, due to their smaller size and energy demands.
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Don’t know what the plans are for electric scooters and motorcycles, but I expect whatever timelines currently in place to get moved back, for reasons others have already mentioned.
However, the fundamentals for oil are not good, and prices could spike in the next few years. That might speed up the transition to evs, but there are plenty of roadblocks preventing a large scale switchover.
I would think it’s more feasible for scooters and mc’s than cars to go electric, due to their smaller size and energy demands.
bikes are lighter, and generally less frontal area, although I won't say 100%, but terrible aerodynamic coefficient, they can go slow using little energy, but highway speeds, some cars today are getting better fuel economy than a few bikes
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The latest insanity are cruise lines (yes, ocean-going SHIPS!) are bragging about going EV = Electric Vessel!!
I have seen diesel-electric propulsion systems work effectively on Washington Ferry System. Their double ender boats have a propeller at each end coupled to a huge electric motor. Works well.
But batteries in banks big enough to run a ship for DAYS?! I think this needs more time to mature in smaller stuff...
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The latest insanity are cruise lines (yes, ocean-going SHIPS!) are bragging about going EV = Electric Vessel!!
I have seen diesel-electric propulsion systems work effectively on Washington Ferry System. Their double ender boats have a propeller at each end coupled to a huge electric motor. Works well.
But batteries in banks big enough to run a ship for DAYS?! I think this needs more time to mature in smaller stuff...
they could always go back to sails
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Awesome replies! We've covered electric cars, boats, trucks, planes - and everything in between. We've covered all your likes and dislikes! But nobody has answered the question: What are the (government) plans for phasing out gas-powered scooters in your part of the world by year 2030 (just 6 years and 3 weeks from today)? Gas-powered cars are being outlawed by 2030, but what about scooters? Does anybody know?
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Awesome replies! We've covered electric cars, boats, trucks, planes - and everything in between. We've covered all your likes and dislikes! But nobody has answered the question: What are the (government) plans for phasing out gas-powered scooters in your part of the world by year 2030 (just 6 years and 3 weeks from today)? Gas-powered cars are being outlawed by 2030, but what about scooters? Does anybody know?
In the UK: The sale of new motorcycles equipped with fossil fuelled ICEs (Internal Combustion Engined) is due to cease in 2035 as part of legislation aimed at reducing carbon emissions and forge a greener future for the planet.18 Jan 2023
https://www.bennetts.co.uk › january
“Enforced change to electric will diminish motorcycle market” - MAG - Bennetts Insurance
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not a lot of specific info...heres a link to an article that's 4 years old..
It mentions China and India eliminating sales of new ICE vehicles by 2040 / 2030. With China and India currently the world's #1 and #3 largest auto markets, we'd better pay attention.
https://www.rideapart.com/news/359600/world-plans-ditch-gasoline-bikes/
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not a lot of specific info...heres a link to an article that's 4 years old..
It mentions China and India eliminating sales of new ICE vehicles by 2040 / 2030. With China and India currently the world's #1 and #3 largest auto markets, we'd better pay attention.
https://www.rideapart.com/news/359600/world-plans-ditch-gasoline-bikes/
I think that article might be a bit outdated Jul 12, 2019
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Yep, he did SAY it was 4 years old...
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I think that article might be a bit outdated Jul 12, 2019
But it's a clue to what's coming. Thanks for the "bread-crumbs". Even the smallest clues are going to be helpful for planning ahead!
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I think it's important to say the sale of new ICE vehicles will be banned at some time...but I don't hear anything about the banning of existing ICE vehicles. We have a huge supply of vehicles in the US...9+ million motorcycles currently registered and 282 million cars/trucks registered...and that's just in the US. Even if new ICE vehicles are banned, someday, we will have a big supply of fossil fuel burning vehicles to choose from for many years to come.
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I think it's important to say the sale of new ICE vehicles will be banned at some time...but I don't hear anything about the banning of existing ICE vehicles. We have a huge supply of vehicles in the US...9+ million motorcycles currently registered and 282 million cars/trucks registered...and that's just in the US. Even if new ICE vehicles are banned, someday, we will have a big supply of fossil fuel burning vehicles to choose from for many years to come.
I'm driving less and less every year, this year maybe 7500 miles total between 2 trucks and 2 bikes, when I was working, 35k-40k was more common. at 71 years old, its likely that my Silverado and Tacoma will remain in useful service as long as I can hold a drivers license. I really don't see an EV in my future
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I expect market forces and economics to impact the use of ice vehicles more than laws and bans. Be surprised if they are affordable for most people by 2030. Same for flying.
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I'm driving less and less every year, this year maybe 7500 miles total between 2 trucks and 2 bikes, …I really don't see an EV in my future
Snap! For the same reasons.
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Snap! For the same reasons.
LOL! Elderly riders shouldn't be in this thread! They'll soon be in the old folks' home. The question is about what young riders will run into when ICE scooters are banned and which jurisdictions will still allow ICE scooters after 2030.
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In Australia there are no plans for banning ICE motorcycles. We just wait to follow the rest of the world in trends and standards - especially US and Europe.
EV vehicles in some states already have their odometer read so are taxed $/km. Can see the gov doing the same for bikes in the future. No more subsidies.
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LOL! Elderly riders shouldn't be in this thread! They'll soon be in the old folks' home. The question is about what young riders will run into when ICE scooters are banned and which jurisdictions will still allow ICE scooters after 2030.
I am certain I'll be riding an electric scooter when I'm in "the old folks' home" but it will be one of those *special* scooters made for us elderly riders... the 3 or 4 wheeled kind with a basket on the front and/or back. ;D
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I am certain I'll be riding an electric scooter when I'm in "the old folks' home" but it will be one of those *special* scooters made for us elderly riders... the 3 or 4 wheeled kind with a basket on the front and/or back. ;D
getting close, I have a street registration and put street tires on my UXV450i
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The question is about what young riders will run into when ICE scooters are banned
We're seeing the answer on a small scale right now: electric stand up scooters, e-skateboards and e-bikes, much of them
on a short-term rental basis. Hoping golf carts become more mainstream as well. Traveling shorter distances and at lower
speeds is going to become reality.
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I think it's the very strong beginning and the countries of the world will decide in the end. time will tell but right now, not ready. no sound, no rumble, no combustion going, doesn't sound fun at all
it's very hard to change when for 50 years that's all I know
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My coffee village has a bunch of golf carts running around. One lady has an 'extendo-cart' with her 3 kids facing the rear in a back seat. She runs them to school - which is right down-town.
cycle-trader is launching equine-trader early next year....
Stig
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the more I think about it, I don't think rural areas are ready for electric vehicles, if you want a quick charge, you need 3phase power access
hydrogen might work better, no heavy batteries = less energy consumption, my understanding you can use hydrogen 2 ways, #1 a hydrogen ICE or #2 electricity from hydrogen
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hydrogen might work better
Recall that you have to MAKE hydrogen. It's not free. Like ethanol, you usually have to use some kind of fuel to generate the end result. If you're not being government subsidized, it's going to be more expensive.
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Recall that you have to MAKE hydrogen. It's not free. Like ethanol, you usually have to use some kind of fuel to generate the end result. If you're not being government subsidized, it's going to be more expensive.
that is current issue, lack of fueling stations outside of California
https://h2fcp.org/stationmap (https://h2fcp.org/stationmap)
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that is current issue, lack of fueling stations outside of California
They must be getting subsidies from on high, then? Not every region is willing to pay extra for electricity to create exotic combustion fuels.